STRATEGI HEDGING TURKI DAN IMPLIKASINYA TERHADAP RESPONS NATO ATAS PERANG RUSIA-UKRAINA (2022-2025)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33822/mjihi.v8i2.12560Keywords:
hedging strategy, turkey’s foreign policy, russia-ukraine war, security alliance, NATOAbstract
This article aims to analyze Turkey’s hedging strategy in the context of the Russia–Ukraine war (2022–2025) and its implications for NATO’s response. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Turkey—as a NATO member—has demonstrated a distinct response compared to other alliance countries. Instead of imposing economic sanctions on Russia, Turkey chose to maintain relations in various sectors, raising doubts about the consistency of its commitment to preserving alliance cohesion. This study employs a qualitative method with a focus on literature review to explore the dynamics of Turkey’s foreign policy. The main research question posed is: to what extent has Turkey’s hedging strategy in the Russia–Ukraine war affected NATO’s cohesion and response toward Russia? The findings suggest that Turkey’s hedging strategy does not merely weaken the alliance’s cohesion but also opens opportunities for NATO to enhance its deterrence capability against Russia while supporting Ukraine’s struggle.
References
Aydın-Düzgit, S., & Tocci, N. (2022). Turkey and the West: Fault lines in a troubled alliance. Palgrave Macmillan.
Aydın-Düzgit, S., Balta, E., & O’Donohue, A. (2020). Turkey, Russia, and the West: Reassessing persistent volatility, asymmetric interdependence, and the Syria conflict. Istanbul Policy Center.
Aydin, M., & Aydıntaşbaş, A. (2025). Bridging the Bosphorus: How Europe and Turkey can turn tiffs into tactics in the Black Sea. European Council on Foreign Relations.
Armutlu, A. (2023). NATO's changing role and Türkiye: Security dynamics and evolution of relations. Middle East Perspectives, 2(1), 2–51.
Bailes, A., & Cottey, A. (2006). Regional security cooperation in the early 21st century. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
Balta, E., & Bal, H. B. (2025). How do middle powers act? Turkey’s foreign policy and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. International Politics. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41311-025-00679-9
Cheng-Chwee, K. (2008). The Essence of Hedging: Malaysia and Singapore’s Response to a Rising China. Contemporary Southeast Asia: A Journal of International and Strategic Affairs, 30, 159 - 185.
Dalay, G., & Isachenko, D. (2022). Turkey’s stakes in the Russia-NATO rivalry: The Ukraine crisis and beyond. SWP Comment.
Dal, E., & Dal, E. (2015). On Turkey ’ s Trail as a “ Rising Middle Power ” in the Network of Global Governance : Preferences , Capabilities , and Strategies.
Goh, E. (2020). The Asia Pacific's "Age of Uncertainty": Great Power Competition, Globalisation and the Economic-Security Nexus. RSiS Working Papers, (330). https://doi.org/10356/143744
Haddad, M. (2023, February 16). Where does your country stand on the Russia-Ukraine war? Al Jazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/2/16/mapping-where-every-country-stands-on-the-russia-ukraine-war
Hale, W. (2013). Turkish foreign policy since 1774. Routledge.
International Energy Agency. (2022). A 10-point plan to reduce the European Union’s reliance on Russian natural gas. https://www.iea.org/reports/a-10-point-plan-to-reduce-the-european-unions-reliance-on-russian-natural-gas
Jordaan, E. (2003). The concept of a middle power in international relations: distinguishing between emerging and traditional middle powers. Politikon, 30(1), 165–181. https://doi.org/10.1080/0258934032000147282
Kaplan, L. (2004). NATO divided, NATO united: The evolution of an alliance. Praeger Publishers.
Kawasaki, T. (2021). Hedging against China: formulating Canada’s new strategy in the era of power politics. Canadian Foreign Policy Journal, 27(2), 175–193. https://doi.org/10.1080/11926422.2021.1901755
Kimmage, M. (2024, July 15). From Cold War to Cold Wars. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). https://www.csis.org/analysis/cold-war-cold-wars
Lamont, C. K. (2015). Research methods in international relations (2nd ed.). SAGE.
Lim, D.J., & Cooper, Z. (2015). Reassessing Hedging: The Logic of Alignment in East Asia. Security Studies, 24, 696 - 727.
Marston, H. S. (2024). Navigating great power competition: A neoclassical realist view of hedging. International Relations of the Asia-Pacific, 24(1), 29–63. https://doi.org/10.1093/irap/lcad001
Mearsheimer, J. (2001). The tragedy of great power politics. W. W. Norton.
Nainggolan, P. (2020). Erdogan and Turkey as the new power in the Middle East. Info Singkat, 12(16), 7–12.
Omiunu, F., Okafor, C., & Ngoka, R. (2024). NATO’s strategy and its involvement in the Russian–Ukraine crisis. African Journal of Politics and Administrative Studies, 17(2), 379–399.
Özkan, G., & Sariaslan, F. (2021). Energy security, geopolitics, and Turkey’s foreign policy in the Caspian Basin. In Inter-state and intra-state conflicts in global politics.
Parmeter, I. (2023). Strategic ambiguity: Turkey, Russia and the war in Ukraine. Australian and New Zealand Journal of European Studies, 15(2), 18–32.
Sanctions adopted following Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine. (2022). European Commission. https://finance.ec.europa.eu/eu-and-world/sanctions-restrictive-measures/sanctions-adopted-following-russias-military-aggression-against-ukraine_en
Shlykov, P. (2023). The state of strategic hedging: Turkey’s foreign policy and relations with Russia. Russia in Global Affairs, 21(3), 135–158.
Snyder, G. (2002). Mearsheimer’s world—Offensive realism and the struggle for security: A review essay. International Security, 27(1), 149–173.
Statement by NATO Heads of State and Government on Russia’s attack on Ukraine. (2022, February 25). NATO. https://www.nato.int/en/about-us/official-texts-and-resources/official-texts/2022/02/25/statement-by-nato-heads-of-state-and-government-on-russias-attack-on-ukraine
Süsler, B. (2019). Turkey: An emerging middle power in a changing world? LSE IDEAS.
Ukraine in maps: Tracking the war with Russia. (2025). BBC. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0l0k4389g2o
Walt, S. M. (1990). The origins of alliances. Cornell University Press.
Waltz, K. (2010). Theory of international politics. Waveland Press.
What is NATO? (2024). NATO. https://www.nato.int/en/what-is-nato
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Rachel Kumendong, Beatrice Sungkono, Bias Permata, Kayla Yosin
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
