The Afghanistan-Pakistan Conflict (2025): Regional Security Complex Theory and Sub-Regional Insecurity
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33822/mjihi.v9i1.13341Keywords:
Afghanistan-Pakistan conflict, Regional Security Complex Theory, sub-regional security, non-state armed groups, border governanceAbstract
The Afghanistan-Pakistan clash in October 2025 represents a critical episode in South Asian security, revealing how state fragility, transnational militant networks, and contested borders generate recurring instability. This article applies Regional Security Complex Theory (RSCT) to explain why Afghanistan and Pakistan constitute a tightly coupled sub-regional security complex characterized by high security interdependence and persistent mutual securitization. Using a qualitative, theory-driven research design drawing on institutional reports, conflict-event data, and policy-oriented literature, the study demonstrates that the 2025 escalation was structurally shaped by enduring historical enmity, the operational autonomy of non-state armed groups, and altered patterns of external power penetration following the United States’ withdrawal from Afghanistan. The findings show that bilateral crisis management and ad hoc confidence-building measures are insufficient in contexts of entrenched regional insecurity. This article argues that the Afghanistan-Pakistan conflict constitutes an autonomous sub-regional security complex in which non-state armed groups function as structural drivers of insecurity rather than merely episodic triggers of violence.
Keywords: Afghanistan-Pakistan conflict; Regional Security Complex Theory; sub-regional security; non-state armed groups; border governance.
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