Analisis Pengaruh Kurs, Suku Bunga, dan Inflasi Terhadap Ekspor 4 Negara ASEAN
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.59664/jded.v4i2.9017Abstract
Ekspor merupakan salah satu dari beberapa faktor yang memiliki pengaruh terhadap dinamika ekonomi suatu negara dan aktivitas ekspor tidak dapat dilepaskan dari sejumlah faktor internal negara, seperti kenaikan dan penurunan kurs, besaran suku bunga, dan tingkat inflasi. Penelitian ini dilakukan dengan tujuan meneliti dampak fluktuasi kurs, besaran suku bunga, dan tingkat inflasi terhadap ekspor di empat negara di Asia Tenggara yakni Indonesia, Filipina, Vietnam, dan Thailand selama tahun 2007-2022. Metode dalam penelitian ini menggunakan regresi data panel, dari penelitian didapatkan hasil bahwa model terbaik yang diperoleh adalah fixed effect. Dari penelitian ini didapatkan hasil bahwa secara parsial, kurs berpengaruh terhadap volume ekspor di keempat negara tersebut, sementara untuk suku bunga didapatkan hasil bahwa suku bunga tidak memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap volume ekspor, dan inflasi juga memengaruhi volume ekspor di negara-negara tersebut. Sedangkan, secara simultan, kurs, suku bunga, dan inflas berpengaruh terhadap volume ekspor di keempat negara ASEAN.
Kata Kunci: Kurs; Suku Bunga; Inflasi; Ekspor; Negara ASEAN
Abstract
Exports are one of several factors that have an influence on the economic dynamics of a country and export activities cannot be separated from a number of internal factors, such as increases and decreases in exchange rates, interest rates, and inflation rates. This study was conducted with the aim of examining the impact of fluctuations in exchange rates, interest rates, and inflation rates on exports in four countries in Southeast Asia, namely Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Thailand during 2007-2022. The method in this study uses panel data regression, from the research obtained the result that the best model obtained is fixed effect. From this study, it is found that partially, the exchange rate affects the export volume in the four countries, while for interest rates, it is found that interest rates do not have a significant effect on the export volume, and inflation also affects the export volume in these countries. Meanwhile, simultaneously, exchange rates, interest rates, and inflation affect the export volume in the four ASEAN countries.
Keywords: Exchange Rate; Interest Rate; Inflation; Export; ASEAN Countries
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