ANALISIS DETERMINAN VOLUME EKSPOR TEH INDONESIA PADA TAHUN 1991-2021
Abstract
Abstrak
Ekspor ialah satu di antara beberapa kegiatan dalam perdagangan internasional, suatu negara saling ketergantungan untuk memenuhi kebutuhannya dan memasarkan produk unggulannya. Sub sektor pertanian yang menyumbang devisa terbesar bagi Indonesia salah satunya ialah perkebunan, salah satu komoditas perkebunan ialah teh. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melihat pengaruh produksi, harga teh internasional, harga kopi internasional, dan nilai tukar terhadap volume ekspor teh Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan data sekunder berupa data deret waktu periode tahun 1991-2021 yang diperoleh dari Direktorat Jenderal Perkebunan, World Bank, Indexmundi dan Internasional Coffee Organization. Hasil pengujian Error Correction Model menyatakan bahwa (1) produksi dalam jangka panjang dan jangka pendek berpengaruh positif signifikan terhadap volume ekspor teh, (2) harga teh internasional dalam jangka panjang pengaruh positif signifikan dan dalam jangka pendek tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap volume ekspor teh, (3) harga kopi internasional dalam jangka panjang dan jangka pendek berpengaruh negatif signifikan terhadap volume ekspor teh, (4) nilai tukar dalam jangka panjang berpengaruh negatif signifikan dan dalam jangka pendek berpengaruh negatif tidak signifikan terhadap volume ekspor teh.
Kata Kunci: Volume Ekspor Teh; Produksi; Harga Teh Internasional; Harga Kopi Internasional; dan Nilai Tukar.
Abstract
Exports are one of several activities in international trade, where countries depend on each other to meet their needs and market their superior products. One of the agricultural sub-sectors that contributes the largest foreign exchange to Indonesia is plantations, one of the plantation commodities is tea. This research aims to look at the influence of production, international tea prices, international coffee prices, and exchange rates on the volume of Indonesian tea exports. This research uses secondary data in the form of time series data for the period 1991-2021 obtained from the Directorate General of Plantations, World Bank, Indexmundi and the International Coffee Organization. The results of the Error Correction Model test stated that (1) production in the long term and short term had a significant positive effect on the volume of tea exports, (2) international tea prices in the long term had a significant positive effect and in the short term had no significant effect on the volume of tea exports, ( 3) international coffee prices in the long term and short term have a significant negative effect on the volume of tea exports, (4) the exchange rate in the long term has a significant negative effect and in the short term has an insignificant negative effect on the volume of tea exports.
Keywords: Tea Export Volume; Production; International Tea Prices; International Coffee Prices; and Exchange Rates.
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