FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI NERACA PERDAGANGAN INDONESIA TAHUN 2018-2022
Abstract
Abstrak
Dalam perdagangan internasional, laporan keuangan tentang kegiatan ekspor dan impor komoditas di negara dicatat dalam neraca perdagangan selama periode atau tahun tertentu. Teori David Hume menekankan bahwa perdagangan salah satu cara yang paling signifikan untuk memberikan kesempatan untuk menaikkan standar hidup orang-orang dan untuk membawa kemajuan dan perbaikan budaya ke mayoritas besar populasi suatu negara. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui ekspor, impor, jumlah uang beredar, dan nilai tukar terhadap neraca perdagangan Indonesia tahun 2018-2022. Pengujian hipotesis pada penelitian ini menggunakan Error Correction Model (ECM) guna menganalisis perkiraan jangka panjang atau jangka pendek dengan program Eviews 12. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa variabel ekspor berpengaruh positif signifikan dalam jangka panjang dan pendek, variabel impor berpengaruh negatif signifikan dalam jangka panjang dan pendek, variabel jumlah uang beredar berpengaruh positif signifikan dalam jangka panjang dan berpengaruh negatif dalam jangka pendek, variabel nilai tukar berpengaruh negatif tidak signifikan dalam jangka panjang dan berpengaruh positif tidak signifikan dalam jangka pendek.
Kata Kunci: ekspor, impor, jumlah uang beredar, nilai tukar, neraca perdagangan
Abstract
In international trade, financial reports about commodity export and import activities in a country are recorded in the trade balance during a certain period or year. David Hume's theory emphasizes that trade is one of the most significant means of providing opportunities to raise people's standards of living and to bring progress and cultural improvement to the vast majority of a country's population. This research aims to determine exports, imports, money supply and exchange rates on Indonesia's trade balance in 2018-2022. Hypothesis testing in this research uses Error Correction Model (ECM) to analyze long-term or short-term estimates with the Eviews 12 program. The results of the research show that the export variable has a significant positive effect in the long and short term, the import variable has a significant negative effect in the long and short term, the money supply variable has a significant positive effect in long term and negative effect in the short term, the exchange rate variable has an insignificant negative effect in the long term and an insignificant positive effect in the short term.
Keywords: exports, imports, money supply,exchange rate, trade balance
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