PENGARUH KEGIATAN EKONOMI INTERNASIONAL TERHADAP PENINGKATAN CADANGAN DEVISA DI INDONESIA
Abstract
Cadangan devisa dianggap sebagai hal penting dalam negara dan tidak dapat dipisahkan dengan kegiatan ekonomi internasional. Devisa dijadikan sebagai suatu indikator vital untuk membuktikan kekuatan mendasar dalam perekonomian suatu negara. Peningkatan cadangan devisa dipengaruhi beberapa faktor pada kegiatan ekonomi internasional, seperti foreign direct investment, utang luar negeri dan kegiatan ekspor. Tujuan dari penelitian ini untuk mengetahui pengaruh foreign direct investment, utang luar negeri dan ekspor terhadap peningkatan cadangan devisa Indonesia. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini dari tahun 1990 sampai dengan tahun 2021. Error Corection Model (ECM) dipilih sebagai metode dalam penelitian ini. Hasil analisis model menunjukkan jika foreign direct investment memiliki pengaruh signifikan terhadap peningkatan cadangan devisa pada jangka panjang namun pada jangka pendek tidak memiliki pengaruh signifikan dikarenakan investasi asing yang masuk perlu diolah kembali seperti untuk peningkatan produksi dalam negeri sehingga dapat meningkatkan kegiatan perdagangan internasional yang nantinya akan menambah cadangan devisa. Utang luar negeri baik dalam jangka panjang maupun jangka pendek memiliki pengaruh signifikan terhadap peningkatan cadangan devisa, dimana utang luar negeri yang masuk langsung terakumulasi ke APBN serta total cadangan devisa negara. Ekspor pada jangka panjang memiliki pengaruh signifikan terhadap peningkatan cadangan devisa namun pada jangka pendek tidak memiliki pengaruh signifikan dikarenakan hasil yang diperoleh dari kegiatan ekspor juga digunakan dalam pembiayaan impor sehingga pengaruh ekspor tidak dapat dilihat dalam waktu jangka pendek.
Foreign exchange reserves for a country are considered important and inseparable from international economic activities. Foreign exchange becomes a vital indicator to prove a fundamental strength in a country's economy. The increase in foreign exchange reserves was influenced by several factors in international economic activities, such as foreign direct investment, external debt and export activities. The purpose of this study is to determine the effect of foreign direct investment, foreign debt and exports on increasing Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves. This research data is from 1990-2021. The Error Corection Model (ECM) was chosen as the method in this study. The results of the model analysis that foreign direct investment has a significant effect on increasing foreign exchange reserves in the long term but in the short term doesn’t have a significant effect because incoming foreign investment needs to be reprocessed, such as to increase domestic production so that it can increase international trade activities which will later increase foreign exchange reserves. Foreign debt in both the long and short term has a significant effect on the increase in foreign exchange reserves, where foreign debt that enters directly accumulates into the state budget as well as the country's total foreign exchange reserves. Exports in the long term have a significant effect on increasing foreign exchange reserves but in the short term don’t have a significant effect because the results obtained from export activities are also used in import financing so that the influence of exports cannot be seen in the short term.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2023 Nisa Ussa’diyah, Fachru Nofrian
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors can enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) before and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work.