Pengaruh FDI, PDB, dan Nilai Tukar Terhadap Ekspor Furnitur Kayu Indonesia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.59664/jded.v5i2.15515Keywords:
Furnitur Kayu; Volume Ekspor Data PanelAbstract
Furnitur kayu merupakan salah satu komoditas strategis Indonesia yang memberikan kontribusi signifikan terhadap perekonomian nasional. Namun demikian, kinerja ekspor furnitur menghadapi berbagai tantangan makroekonomi, termasuk volatilitas nilai tukar, fluktuasi Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) negara tujuan, dan peran Penanaman Modal Asing (PMA). Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh PDB negara tujuan, nilai tukar, dan PMA terhadap volume ekspor furnitur kayu Indonesia periode 2013-2023. Menggunakan analisis data panel dengan Fixed Effect Model (FEM) dan robust standard error, penelitian ini juga mengkaji bagaimana nilai tukar memoderasi hubungan antara pertumbuhan ekonomi negara tujuan dengan volume ekspor. Data mencakup empat negara mitra dagang utama: Australia, China, Malaysia, dan Singapura. Hasil menunjukkan bahwa PDB negara tujuan dan investasi berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap volume ekspor, sedangkan nilai tukar berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan akibat tingginya ketergantungan pada bahan baku impor. Selain itu, interaksi antara nilai tukar dan PDB secara signifikan memoderasi pengaruh pertumbuhan ekonomi terhadap ekspor, yang menunjukkan bahwa stabilitas mata uang merupakan determinan strategis dalam mengoptimalkan potensi pasar tujuan.
Kata kunci: Furnitur Kayu; Volume Ekspor; Data Panel
Abstract
Wooden furniture is one of Indonesia's strategic commodities that contributes significantly to the national economy. However, the performance of furniture exports faces various macroeconomic challenges, including exchange rate volatility, fluctuations in the destination countries' Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and the role of foreign direct investment (FDI). This study aims to analyze the influence of GDP of destination countries, exchange rates, and FDI on the export volume of Indonesian wooden furniture from 2013 to 2023. Using panel data analysis with the Fixed Effect Model (FEM) and robust standard error, this study also examines how the exchange rate moderates the relationship between the destination country's economic growth and export volume. The data encompasses four major trading partners: Australia, China, Malaysia, and Singapore. The results show that the GDP of destination countries and investment have a positive and significant effect on export volume, while the exchange rate has a negative and significant effect due to the high dependency on imported raw materials. Furthermore, the interaction between the exchange rate and GDP significantly moderates the influence of economic growth on exports, indicating that currency stability is a strategic determinant in maximizing the potential of destination markets.
Keywords : Wooden Furniture; Export Volume; Panel Data
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