Pengaruh Inflasi, Pertumbuhan Petani, Luas Lahan, Dan Curah Hujan Terhadap Produksi Kopi Sumatera Selatan
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.59664/jded.v5i1.13818Keywords:
Coffee Production, Inflation, Farmer Growth, Land Area, Rainfall.Abstract
Produksi kopi di Provinsi Sumatera Selatan mengalami fluktuasi yang dipengaruhi faktor ekonomi dan iklim. Sebagai daerah penghasil kopi utama, penting untuk mengidentifikasi variabel yang memengaruhi produksi, terutama inflasi, pertumbuhan jumlah petani, luas lahan, dan curah hujan. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh keempat variabel tersebut terhadap produksi kopi dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjang. Metode yang digunakan adalah Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) dengan data runtut waktu triwulanan periode 2013–2024. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa inflasi dan pertumbuhan jumlah petani tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap produksi kopi, baik jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang. Luas lahan berpengaruh signifikan dalam jangka panjang sehingga menjadi faktor utama peningkatan produksi. Curah hujan menunjukkan pengaruh yang tidak konsisten antarperiode. Secara simultan, seluruh variabel terbukti berpengaruh signifikan terhadap produksi kopi. Kesimpulannya, luas lahan memiliki peranan paling kuat dibandingkan variabel ekonomi dan iklim yang cenderung fluktuatif. Karena itu, peningkatan produktivitas lahan dan upaya adaptasi iklim perlu diperkuat untuk mendukung keberlanjutan produksi kopi.
Keywords : Produksi Kopi; Inflasi; Pertumbuhan Petani; Luas Lahan, Curah Hujan.
Abstract
Coffee production in South Sumatra Province fluctuates, influenced by economic and climatic factors. As a major coffee-producing region, it is important to identify variables that influence production, particularly inflation, farmer growth, land area, and rainfall. This study aims to analyze the influence of these four variables on coffee production in the short and long term. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method was used with quarterly time series data from 2013–2024. The results show that inflation and farmer growth have no significant effect on coffee production, either in the short or long term. Land area has a significant effect in the long term, thus becoming the main factor in increasing production. Rainfall shows an inconsistent effect across periods. Simultaneously, all variables have been shown to have a significant effect on coffee production. In conclusion, land area plays the strongest role compared to economic and climatic variables, which tend to fluctuate. Therefore, increasing land productivity and strengthening climate adaptation efforts need to support sustainable coffee production.
Keywords : Coffee Production; Inflation; Farmer Growth; Land Area, Rainfall.
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